Three years ago I attended the Urban Land Institute’s annual Trends Day and left wanting to put a gun to my head. The experts who I had learned to trust over several years of working in and around real estate in Arizona, had just told us the market would be sour for years. Emphasis on YEARS. Double emphasis on SOUR. There was no end in sight, they said, to an economic nose dive that had cost many people their livelihood when it started sliding in 2008.

Two years ago, at the same conference, the experts were predicting the newly named “Great Recession” was in full swing and still hadn’t hit the bottom. Not what the eager audience wanted to hear, certainly, and a weaker soul may actually have bought the gun this time. Fast forward to last year, and the theme of doom and gloom continued, but several experts felt the bottom had been reached. Halleluiah, I thought. We’re in recovery!

Not so fast, young Jedi, I later discovered. Business was definitely on the uptick for many, including my firm, thankfully. But the real estate market, foreclosures, short sales and availability of credit was still aching. “Skipping along the bottom,” they called it. As long as the occasional bump on the bottom doesn’t dislocate a disk, I thought to myself, and we got used to the new normal.

The same conference, held yesterday at the Sheraton Downtown Phoenix, drew more than 600 people eager to hear the economic and real estate forecasts for 2012. “Dr. Doom has left the building,” said Cushman & Wakefield broker Chris Toci. And better times are around the corner.  Yes! From his mouth to God’s ears, my conference companions mused.

There are numerous headwinds that still face the U.S. and Arizona, according to many of the speakers, but the strengths are many and I choose today to focus on those, as did many of the speakers. My top three:

1. Retail sales are up and commercial rental rates are down: a good combination for luring first-to-market stores and restaurants to our fine state.
2. Our region’s leaders, business owners, politicians and CEOs are all game for change and eager to avoid another structural recession in the future. How? By focusing our economic growth on new and fledgling industries while still supporting those that made us strong in the first place (real estate and tourism). Steve Betts, ULI Chairman, says to go for the HEAT – healthcare, energy (and education), aerospace and technology. All are already represented here and poised for growth.
3. Business and industry leaders are “thinking new.” Drew Brown of developer DMB said that people are thinking differently and that consumer’s expectations are higher but they’re willing to make trade-offs to get what they want.

Bottom line…real estate is a good place to be investing in Arizona right now. Capital is available. Prices are good. The business community is energized again. We’re back, America.